A new year! Now what?

Unless you’ve been in a coma since March, you’re aware that, from just about any angle, 2020 has been a pretty dismal excuse for a year. And that goes double for Nashville. Following the March tornadoes and the pandemic, severe straight line winds knocked 100,000+ Nashvillians off the power grid for up to two weeks in May. To top things off, a domestic terrorist blew himself up on Christmas morning taking a good bit of historic Second Avenue with him. OMG! What next?!? Wait! Don’t answer that …

While weather and other events beyond our control do not respect man-made calendars, there is a certain relief in being able to say, “It’s no longer 2020.”

Amen!

But what about the year ahead? Amid all this gloom, one Nashville bright spot in 2020 has been residential real estate. What does the crystal ball say?

Disclaimer: I do not have a crystal ball. I have a Tennessee real estate license. But I do have some thoughts, so here goes. From all indications, our market going into the new year will be much like it has been in 2020. Which means …

Sell, sell, sell!
Do you want to sell your house? Are you sorta thinking about it? Maybe it just crossed your mind … a fleeting thought … Call me now!Given how tight inventory is, you’d be doing the world a favor. Price it right and it will sell.

Even overpriced listings get a lot of action. I had an overpriced listing this fall and had 72 showings in two weeks. Within two days of dropping the price to a more reasonable level, we had two offers at the same time and it sold for over asking.

January 2021 is a great time to sell.

But, where do I go … ?
Well, that can be a tough one. If you’re not leaving town, or moving to assisted living, or planning to live in your grown kids’ basement when your house sells – which it will – chances are you’ll need to buy another place.

Challenging! (see above)

If you need a mortgage, there’s good news. Interest rates are at historic lows and it looks like this will continue well into 2021. With a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at less than 2.5%, (and a 15-year fixed is even cheaper) your buying power is at an all-time high. It will take determination and patience – I can help you with both of those – but the deals do get done.

You’ve got to bring your A game, but January 2021 is also a great time to buy.

Still grateful after all these years …

Last Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, I began my seventh decade on this planet, and coincidentally, my seventh year in the real estate business.

Wow! What to make of this?

One thing is sure, and gets more so the longer I live – there is always something to be grateful for.

It would be easy to look back at the past 12 months – the past nine in particular – and believe the world is coming apart at the seams. Tornado, pandemic, protests for racial equality, more pandemic, economic distress, isolation, and loneliness all around us. It seems like nothing but bad news since the middle of March.

And yet, I remain grateful. Here’s my 2020 list.

Family and friends
How sweet it is! I’ve got kids, sisters, cousins, and a host of great friends who love me. And I love them back. We support each other, feed each other, have a lot of drinks, have a lot of laughs. Now and then, we shed tears. Their presence means everything.

My job
I can’t say it often enough – real estate is the best job I have ever had. I get to work with all kinds of interesting clients, and all kinds of interesting houses, in all kinds of interesting neighborhoods, among all kinds of smart, hard-working realtors – both at Village and beyond. And I get paid to do this. Bliss!

A crazy-hot market
Despite the avalanche of bad news world-wide, Nashville’s residential real estate market continues to boom. Low interest rates, tight inventory, and thousands of newcomers make our market challenging and sometimes downright wild. But with determination and patience, the deals get done and buyers and sellers get what they need. Plus, there’s never a dull moment!

New political leadership
If any one good thing has come to us this year, it’s a change at the top. Regardless of political policy, it’s my hope that we will move out of a period of childish, hostile, divisive behavior and into a period of respectful discourse, inclusiveness, and common cause. No more adolescent name-calling and backbiting. No more racist dog-whistles, misogynistic “locker room talk”, homophobia, and immigrant bashing. No more working to divide Americans into “us” and “them.” We are all in this together, and I’m grateful for new leaders who will honor that principle and work to rebuild bridges.

You
And of course, I’m always grateful to everyone who takes the time to read these messages, try the cocktails, and send me comments.

That’s a lot to be grateful for!

Get it in writing!

In this business, the contract is fundamental. If it’s in the contract, it’s in the deal. If it’s not, it’s not. This is always important, of course, but in this crazy market, a little slip can cost you. 
 
Recently, I’ve had two situations that reinforced this concept big time. One tripped up a buyer’s agent on one of my listings. The other nearly tripped me up. Both situations worked out well, but you never know …
 
In the first, I had a listing with a stampede of showings and multiple offers. One came with a cover e-mail offering, among other things, to pay all my seller’s closing costs. But this provision was not written into the contract attached to the email. 
 
With the buyer paying all closing costs, this offer would be highest and best. Otherwise another offer would be the winner. So I called the agent and asked if her client would agree to a counter offer stating the buyer would pay all closing costs. They did, and they got the deal. 
 
Language in a cover email doesn’t count. Only what’s written in the actual offer itself. 

In the other case, I had the buyers. The listing indicated a $5,000 concession to the buyer for an 80% conventional or better offer. My clients were putting 33% down with conventional financing, so they definitely qualified for the $5,000 and they were delighted. 
 
A few days prior to closing, we got the preliminary closing disclosure and I noticed that the $5,000 concession wasn’t on the statement. A flurry of calls and texts ensued. I got the concession back into the deal, much to my clients’ (and my) relief. But, I had to scramble – as well as rely on the seller’s honor – to get things fixed. 
 
As a rule, if something is stated in the MLS listing, it applies to the deal. But, I relied on that assumption, and it wasn’t written in the actual offer. A big lapse on my part – never to be repeated!
 
So the lesson, especially for buyers in these competitive times, is to say what you mean and mean what you say – and write it into the contract. And work with a realtor who will help you read what’s written. Assumptions and vagary can lead to disaster.

Tips on Flips

Flips. You’ve seen them – houses, especially in transitioning neighborhoods, that have been completely re-done for the purpose of resale. Lately, I’ve had some intense experiences working with buyers of flips, and as always, we learn something new with every transaction
 
One deal involved a cute ranch, that looked wonderful on the surface, but hid all sorts of unpleasant surprises upon inspection. Even more unpleasantness arose when sellers were reluctant to correct defects. There was drama right up to the day of closing, and it continued for a week thereafter!
 
In another, the buyers were aware of a number of things that were obviously done sloppily or just plain wrong. It’s a great house and they wanted it anyway, so they bought it planning to correct the problems, and budgeted money for that purpose. 
 
In the process of all this, I’ve picked up a few pointers.

Eyes Open   Not all flips are as sloppy as the two I cited above, but in a flip there’s an excellent chance corners have been cut somewhere. This isn’t a reason to cross flips off your list. You just need to be aware of this and go forward knowing not to expect perfection.

Inspect!!   Inspect everything and find out whether anything is seriously wrong. If the fundamentals (foundation, systems, wiring, etc.) are good, the house meets your needs, and you like the price, go for it! You can replace a tacky bathroom faucet or repaint the living room later. 

 Know Your Bottom Line   If there are defects the seller needs to correct, know what you ultimately will or will not accept. Then go in and bargain hard – always remembering that civility works best – and know when to walk away if you can’t get what you want.

Budget   If you like the house and you want to live there, and you are deciding whether you can afford it, think about what you will want to correct and budget for that. Cheapo kitchen cabinets are considered an aesthetic issue and the seller won’t replace them. So, if you cannot live with the cabinets, budget to make the change. 

Of course, much of this applies to buying any existing property. With flips, what often trips us up is that they usually look so perfect. Successful flippers load up on the eye candy. Buyers fall in love with what they can see at their first visit and are shocked to learn that the ductwork is falling apart or the brand new roof is so cheap it will last 3 years at best.

Of course, the best tip I can offer is to link up with a good realtor. Especially one who can make you a nice cocktail while you go over your repair request list …

Home - as an Investment

Over the almost-six years I’ve been writing these monthly emails, I’ve said more than once that looking at a house purchase strictly as an investment is missing a big part of the picture. 
 
A house is more than an investment. A house is also a home. 
 
Life – romance, marriage, intrigue, kids, gardening, entertaining, joy, sadness, good food, good friends, hangovers, holidays, the whole ball of wax – happens at home.
 
And yet … Investing in a house can also work in your favor – big time! Right now, in these crazy covid-challenged times, it’s a good idea to look at that side of the equation, too.
 
First, let’s get this one out of the way: ALL investments involve risk. No risk, no reward. Generally, the higher the risk, the higher the potential reward. But of course, with high risk comes the possibility of no reward at all.

So, how do we look at the risk/reward picture with residential real estate?

Let’s compare to the stock market. Gains in the S&P 500 look impressive this year, rising almost 5% from January through mid-August. Unfortunately, that’s entirely due to the gravity-defying performance of six tech stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, and Google. Without these six, the index would have dropped by 4.2%. And how long can these six fly so high? Remember Icarus?
 
Bond yields are lousy and values are sinking. Hoarding cash won’t work. The value of the dollar is down 3% so far this year.
 
Pretty gloomy, right? There’s always gold, of course. Gold is up 35% this year. But gold can be volatile and – here’s a fundamental question – what can you actually do with gold?
 
Which gets us back to real estate. Not only do values generally increase over time – sometimes dramatically – you can live in a house while it’s appreciating. See paragraph three above. It’s the only investment you can throw a party in, cook dinner in, make love in … whatever. Try any of that with stock certificates or gold bullion. 
 
True, property values sometimes drop, but they always rise again. And in the mean time you have a place to live, which can take the sting out of a – usually temporary – loss.
 
Add to this mix ultra-cheap mortgage rates – currently 3.5% (or less) for a 30-year fixed – and the answer is obvious: Buy a house!
 
One more thing – always work with a good realtor. Preferably one who will mix you a nice cocktail …